Adverse Selection

Economic theory can explain everything, even the mundane. Consider the market for lemon cars and the concept of adverse selection. Economists have developed an entire story to explain why, due to imperfect information, only lemon cars are sold in the used car market. And the story goes a little something like this:

(And a one, and a two, and a…)

Let’s say there’s a used car market consisting solely of two people who want to sell their car. Call these people Alice and Eve. Alice has a great car in perfect condition with low mileage; Eve has a similar car, but she’s had nothing but problems with the vehicle and wants to get rid of it. To a potential buyer, Bob, the cars appear to be equivalent. Alice knows she’s got a good car and therefore expects to sell the car for price P. Eve knows she’s got a lemon and therefore expects to sell the car for price X, where X is less than P. Simple enough, right?

Eve notices that her car appears equivalent to Alice’s car and realizes that she could probably charge more than X. After all, how is Bob to know the difference? So, Eve will try to sell her car at some price greater than X, but less than P. Alice notices that her car appears equivalent to Eve’s car, suggesting that Bob will value her car at the same value as Eve’s car. As a result, Alice chooses not to sell her car in the market because she won’t get the price she wants for the car. This leaves Eve’s car as the only available option in the used car market.

Only lemons? Ouch! Doesn’t sound like the kind of market you want to be buying from!

Consumers can protect themselves by attempting to compensate for this information gap using insurance title searches, consumer reports, or independent certification by a mechanic. But in a market filled with millions of products, not just cars, is this feasible? Consider my experience with my wife’s Sony laptop: great company, good brand reputation, garbage product. Even with the product’s recent bad publicity, how many people are being “taken” by Sony’s inferior laptop products? A heckuva lot, I’m willing to bet.

Bad products are like spam. Most people won’t buy products advertised in spam, but if even one in a million recipients buy the product, the company sending the spam is ahead of the game. Similarly, if just enough people get suckered into buying a crappy product, another company earns a few more bucks it doesn’t really deserve. And you, as the customer in either case, are left with yet another penis enhancer that doesn’t work.

Now if that isn’t a depressing conclusion, I don’t know what is.

Is Life Too Easy?

Something has been bothering me for the past several months, namely the thought that perhaps life is too easy these days. I don’t just mean that on a personal level, as in “my life has been too easy”, but also on a wider level. It begs the question: is Darwinism dead?

Humans exist for one purpose: to breed. As much as we might be interested in higher purposes, such as artistic or scientific pursuits, the fact remains that these are superfluous activities. Your only priorities as a human being can be broken down into three simple steps:

  1. Stay alive.
  2. Breed.
  3. Repeat (if possible).

Sad, but true. As a kid, I was always under the misguided impression that grown-ups were subject to significant obstacles to achieve Step 1. You had to get a job. Getting a job was hard. You had to buy food and shelter. Food and shelter cost a lot. Et cetera. But now I find that none of those are anywhere near as hard as I once thought. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like jobs fall into my lap or I’m a millionaire, but I’ve achieved success insofar as I’ve completed Step 1 for a sufficiently long enough period of time as to allow me to proceed onto Step 2 and consider my life’s work complete.

(Allow me to digress for a moment and state for the record this is not a subtle attempt to reveal my success in achieving Step 2. I have no intention of unleashing my demon spawn on the world until a much later date when the appropriate invasion plan has been formulated.)

So that’s it?!? I’m almost done?

Come to think of it, I’ve really been a bit of an overachiever. If I were really on top of my game, I would have moved onto Step 2 shortly after high school and taken the rest of eternity off for completing my assignment early. This is the path that many take and are they really any worse off? Sure, they may not live a luxurious lifestyle due to their lack of education or opportunity, but they’ve still succeeded in what counts from an evolutionary point of view. In today’s world, it’s pretty hard not to succeed on this evolutionary basis, at least at Steps 1 and 2.

The ease with which evolutionary success can be achieved makes me wonder if the fittest are really the ones that are surviving in today’s society. Is the human race dragging along genetic flotsam and jetsam that should have long ago been culled from the gene pool? But if it should have been culled, why wasn’t it? It almost seems as if the success of the human race to easily overcome evolutionary hurdles like predation and disease is enough to suggest that there is no higher purpose than Steps 1 and 2. Oh, and Step 3, time permitting.