Micro-Fads, Micro-Markets

A couple weeks ago, Stephen Colbert pointed to a URL that I assumed was fake. Of course, I immediately hit it, and was shocked to find that not only did it exist, it was hawking Cafepress wares directly related to the episode. Weirdness! Even weirder: the domain had only been registered that day.

Coincidence? Although one could be led to believe that this was a set-up by some clever (read: underpaid) Daily Show staffer, I’m actually willing to believe it’s an example of the increase in speed at which individual small-time entrepreneurs are acting to capture transient markets that exist on only very compressed time scales. When you think about it, these entrepreneurs have an extremely narrow window of opportunity – in this particular case, the entrepreneur only had maybe three hours between the broadcast in New York and the re-broadcast on the west coast. That’s three hours to register a domain, configure a web server to host the domain, create a few web pages and a Cafepress store, and generate artwork to host in the store.

Granted, an intrepid hacker in the Daily Show audience may have had most of the requisite resources at their disposal already, and simply registered the domain via their smartphone, thereby buying themselves another half-dozen hours. Still, even considering the relatively simple and amateurish nature of both the web site and its wares, it’s still a pretty neat trick. It takes an action-oriented individual with the means to pull disparate pieces together and get anything done so quickly. When’s the last time you built a web-based business in three to six hours?

Probably never, I’m guessing.

I saw this same stunt repeated in the wake of Bill Gate’s “creative communists” remark recently. Instantly, artists pillaged Cold-War era Soviet propaganda, reworked it into a Creative Commons motif, and released it to the world. Most popular: the Creative Commies T-Shirt – for $5!

While I’m impressed by this phenomenon, I’m not willing to believe that all businesses are necessarily suited to this model of action-reaction. In many ways, this is just the evolution of the same phenomenon that drove people to sell “I survived the Generic Natural Disaster of This Month” t-shirts with some success. However, the omnipresent nature of the web gives us a view into the things people want, and underlines the fact that opportunity is everywhere. The more tools we have, the easier it gets to throw together something that’s relatively successful in a short period of time, bootstrapped, in part, by the temporary focus of public attention on a short-lived phenomenon.

This trend has its advantages and its disadvantages. Although it has the power to help anyone create a product quickly, most of these products are inevitably something that can be created easily. Doesn’t this just focus on the impulse? Can anything truly worthwhile in the long term be created with such haste? I’m still chewing on that question – I’d like to say “no”, but I can think of instance where markets have coalesced quickly, mostly due to intersection of shifts in social attitudes, costs of production, and other reactants for change.

I’m inclined to say that just because it’s fast, doesn’t mean it’s worthless.

Not “Tivoted”

It’s timely that Jeff Jarvis, Fred Wilson, and Om Malik have started kvetching about how to save TiVo. Just last night, I downloaded the TiVo Home Media Engine SDK to see if there was something worthwhile tinkering with. To be honest, I was kind of shocked at limited functionality provided by the SDK.

I was originally interested in creating a nice little application to destroy the TV broadcast model – you know, for fun! When I heard the TiVo SDK was based on Java, I figured I’d have everything I needed. I knew that the TiVo SDK didn’t allow video playback, but I thought I would be able to use the Java Media Framework to render Flash content. With a little tinkering, I figured I should be able to stitch together a simple app to push vodcasting a little closer to reality. Boy was I wrong.

The whole approach taken by the TiVo HME SDK is extremely limiting. Basically it’s a client-server approach that requires an application to live on a separate PC running the application, which sends commands over TCP/IP to the receiver (i.e. the TiVo box). While an application can stream audio or send images to the TiVo, no capabilities are provided for displaying video. Oh, I suppose if you were really desperate for this capability, you could hack together a solution that renders frames to a Graphics2D context, which could then be rendered as an image on the TiVo – but I’m guessing the performance would be horrible. And, anyway, as a developer I’m really not interested in hacking together codecs, I’m interested in writing applications.

I guess what bugs me about the SDK more than anything is that TiVo seems to be operating under the delusion that erecting fences around what a developer can access on a TiVo is a good idea. If TiVo is really serious, they need to look at allowing developers on the device itself (legitimately, I mean, as opposed to the current method for extending TiVo’s capabilities). Of course, TiVo seems to be happy enough to snub the cable companies, but not ballsy enough to really take on the established model – maybe we’ll have to wait for Akimbo for that?

C’mon TiVo, if you want a million flowers to bloom, you’ve got to give us everything! Give us a method to put code on the device (I mean, seriously, what average consumer is going to run stuff on another machine). Let us manipulate data! Let applications like mGrok (Disclosure: the guys behind mGrok are friends of mine) get access to raw MPEG data and build applications that enable people to get more out of their TiVo, their recorded shows, or content downloaded from the net. If you really want to beat Windows Media Center and continue to lead the industry you created, you’re going have to provide unlimited access (maybe you should follow Scoble’s suggestion and allow media-centric companies like Orb to solutions on top of your platform that don’t require yet another application on their home computer).

If you’re not prepared to bet all of your chips, it’s time to get out of the game.